Trump's endorsement power will be put to the test as May primaries approach
Donald Trump has raised an unprecedented sum of money in his post-presidency. He has maintained powerful alliances with top Republican leaders. And he has continued to attract large crowds as he holds rallies across the country.
But all that could change next month, when the former President faces the first real test of his political prowess since leaving office. With more than 10 states hosting primary contests and 22 candidates competing who have received Trump's endorsement, allies of the former President said the month of May will clearly define both the depth and limitations of his influence.
"May will set the tone for the remainder of the election cycle," former Trump campaign adviser Bryan Lanza, who remains close to Trump,
The prospect of Trump ending the month with an unblemished record of endorsements looks increasingly improbable as many of his chosen candidates struggle to compete in contentious primaries, often against Republican opponents who are better funded, have avoided getting bogged down in divisive messaging about the 2020 election or have benefited from establishment support.
Trump appears to be aware of the problem and is already hedging his bets.
Ahead of Alabama's May 24 primary, he withdrew his endorsement from floundering Senate candidate Mo Brooks less than a week after telegraphing his displeasure with the congressman's weak performance in the race. Brooks quipped in a radio interview the same day that Trump yanked his endorsement that he might end up endorsing all three candidates in the race just so "he's assured of being able to say that he won."
While advisers say Trump is highly unlikely to endorse more than one candidate in a primary, Brooks' comment underscores the almost singular focus the former President has placed on maintaining a sterling track record of endorsements in the 2022 cycle. Trump was quick to boast of his "33-0" scorecard in the Texas primary last month, even though many of his endorsed candidates were GOP incumbents in uncontested races. May is far more likely to illuminate how and where the power of a Trump endorsement matters.
"We know that he can fundraise but in terms of utilizing that and seeing how important his endorsement power is, I think it could be make or break for the rest of the campaign season," said one Trump adviser, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
In North Carolina, Trump has told allies he is nervous about Rep. Ted Budd finishing second in the May 17 primary, behind former GOP Gov. Pat McCrory, who has proved to be a superior fundraiser and enjoys establishment support.
Trump hinted at those concerns during a speech to GOP donors in March, telling the crowd gathered in New Orleans, "We've got to get (Mark) Walker out of that race," according to one attendee. Walker, a former congressman and pastor, has refused to exit the contest despite trailing Budd and McCrory -- a development that has left Trump and his team worried that he is siphoning off support from Budd.
And in competitive Senate primaries in Ohio and Pennsylvania that lack clear front-runners, Trump is so far withholding his endorsements. Other states could offer mixed results for him, as some of his chosen candidates appear poised to skate through their primaries while others are barely competitive against the incumbents they're challenging.
In Georgia, for instance, Senate hopeful Herschel Walker rocketed to the front of the Republican pack after receiving Trump's endorsement last September, while David Perdue, who is challenging incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp with Trump's blessing, has failed to gain significant traction in that primary.
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