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Writer's pictureGlobal Impacts

The world will pay a much heavier price than predicted in war between Russia and NATO over Ukraine

Russian Iskander missiles, which can be tipped with nukes, are pictured arriving in Belarus last week

Russia is massing nuclear-capable missiles along with 30,000 troops in Belarus, NATO has warned, amid fears of a huge refugee crisis if Ukraine is invaded.


Jens Stoltenberg, NATO general secretary, said today that Russia has already deployed thousands of troops including Spetsnaz special forces, along with Iskander missiles that can be tipped with nukes, fighter jets, and S-400 anti-aircraft systems.


Intelligence suggests that Putin will grow that force to 30,000 troops within the coming days, Stoltenberg added, saying it represents the largest Russian deployment in Belarus since the Cold War.

'The lives and safety of millions of people in eastern Ukraine hang in the balance as we wait for a political breakthrough to the current impasse,' Jan Egeland, head of the council, said in a statement after visiting Ukraine.


'We must not underestimate the human suffering of renewed conflict - it would result in increased civilian casualties, massive displacement and humanitarian needs.'


Egeland said fighting in the eastern Donbass region has already displaced some 850,000 and left 3million reliant on humanitarian aid.


And he predicted another 2million people would be made homeless if Russia were to attack other eastern regions - not including the possibility of an attack from Belarus.


Amid the East-West standoff, Britain on Thursday launched fighter jets against aircraft approaching its area of interest, a day after the Royal Air Force intercepted and escorted away four Russian bomber in a similar operation.


'Quick Reaction Alert Typhoon fighters from RAF Lossiemouth, supported by a Voyager Tanker from RAF Brize Norton, have been launched against aircraft approaching the UK area of interest,' an RAF spokesman said.


While the identity of the approaching aircraft was not immediately confirmed, it comes just a day after RAF jets were sent to escort two Russian Cold War-era Tu-95 Bear H and two Tu-142 Bear Fs.


The Quick Reaction Force 'intercepted and escorted' the four Russian aircraft and escorted them away from UK airspace, the RAF said. The Russian bombers did not enter UK sovereign airspace.

'Quick Reaction Alert Typhoon fighters based at RAF Lossiemouth supported by a Voyager from RAF Brize Norton were scrambled today against unidentified aircraft approaching the UK area of interest. Subsequently we intercepted and escorted four Russian Bear aircraft.'


Analysts have warned for weeks that Russia is in the process of significantly expanding its arsenal in Belarus, which comes after dictator Lukashenko pivoted into a close alliance with Russia after relations with the EU dramatically collapsed.


The strongman leader, often called Europe's last dictator, hit out at the EU after it criticised his most-recent election 'win' in 2020 which was widely viewed as rigged - then cut almost all ties after he hijacked a Ryanair plane to arrest a journalist.


Since then, Lukashenko has drawn markedly close to Russia - backing Putin's menacing of Ukraine, having been largely dismissive of Putin's expansionism when he annexed Crimea in 2014.


In recent weeks, Lukashenko has offered Putin use of a Belarussian training base near Poland and Lithuania - both NATO states - the use of four airbases, a missile base, and storage sites, and has offered to host Russian nuclear weapons.


The pair will also hold a major military drill on Ukraine's border to test the combat readiness of their troops in the coming days.


Russia has massed some 130,000 troops backed by tanks and artillery on Ukraine's border, a build-up that began in November last year but continues to grow as Washington warns invasion could be 'imminent'.


High-level diplomacy is now underway after the Kremlin has issued a list of security demands to NATO and the US, including that Ukraine be banned from the alliance and all forces be withdrawn from ex-Soviet states.


Most of Moscow's demands have been dismissed as non-starters, but Western allies have proposed renegotiating missile agreements, increasing the transparency of military drills, and giving Russian inspectors access to NATO bases as a compromise.


But they also warned Putin that failure to withdraw his troops from Ukraine's border will result in NATO sending extra troops to the region to counter-balance them, a move that Biden made good on as he deployed an extra 2,000 troops to Europe.


Around 1,700 of those will be heading to Poland, NATO's closest deployment to eastern Europe, while 300 will go to Germany to join command positions there.

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