A look at how Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been escalating his hybrid war against the Western world. However, his annual speech to Russian ambassadors on November 18 saw Putin at his most uninspired and defensive. The Russian leader’s long list of criticisms and complaints left the distinct impression that while everything in Russian foreign policy has gone wrong, none of it is actually his fault.
Unsurprisingly, Putin dedicated much of his speech to the war in Ukraine, which he acknowledged as the Kremlin’s key foreign policy concern. Less typical was his sharp criticism of the role played by Germany and France in efforts to resolve the conflict. Putin accused Paris and Berlin of “indulging the current Kiev leadership’s course on dismantling the [Minsk agreements] which, unfortunately, has led the talks and the settlement itself into a dead end.”
These comments came soon after an unusually strongly worded joint statement issued by the French and German foreign ministers that accused Russia of deliberately blocking peace talks and warned of “serious consequences” if Moscow launches a fresh military offensive against Ukraine. Clearly, when Germany and France speak up, Putin listens.
The Russian leader then accused the West of collectively “exacerbating the situation by supplying Kiev with modern lethal weapons, conducting provocative military exercises in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders.” This confirms that arms deliveries to Ukraine make Putin sit up and take notice.
Putin’s most critical comments focused on the West’s alleged failure to take Russia’s demands seriously with regard to Ukraine. “Our partners are peculiar in the sense that they have a very, to put it mildly, superficial approach to our warnings about red lines,” he complained. Some have interpreted this as an indication of his readiness to imminently escalate in Ukraine. I would argue that it points to Putin’s begrudging respect for demonstrations of strength.
The Russian leader’s comments on the future of the Ukraine peace process left the impression that France and Germany’s uncompromising recent position had indeed been effective. In an infamous essay published earlier this year, Putin questioned Ukraine’s right to statehood while claiming that Russians and Ukrainians were “one people.” He has persistently refused to talk to President Zelenskyy and argued that as the Ukrainian authorities are Western puppets, it makes more sense for Russia to talk directly to the United States, Germany and France. In his speech this week, however, Putin called for a revival of the Normandy talks, which include Ukraine.
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