India's arm deal with Russia could be a big headach for biden

The Biden administration’s Pacific strategy will face a major test later this year when India makes good on a controversial $5 billion arms deal with Russia, an agreement that could trigger U.S. sanctions at a time when Washington is trying to pull India closer.

The deal for five Russian-made S-400 air defense systems has long been a concern in Washington, but with delivery expected in December, the White House will be forced to decide how to manage the complicated relationship between the two countries.

In play is the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA, a 2017 law with broad support in Congress that punishes countries for making major arms deals with Russia, the world’s second-largest arms exporter.

To date, the only countries sanctioned under the law are Turkey and China, both for buying the same S-400 system slated to arrive in India. It’s a precedent that could put the Biden administration in an awkward position with a key ally.

The government of Narendra Modi appears to have made the decision to go forward with the system, and “they've not backed down for the last three years despite the threats of sanctions,” said Sameer Lalwani, director of the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program.

“They planned around it, they made this commitment and reaffirmed it. They're not blinking on this and so we can play this game of chicken as much as we want, but the consequences will be worse for us,” he said.

Modi was in Washington last week to meet with Biden and the other leaders of the The Quad — India, Australia, Japan and the U.S. — to discuss a range of regional issues, but American and Indian officials would not confirm the S-400 was on the agenda.

India has for decades been a customer of weapons made in the U.S., Russia, France and Israel. But in recent years successive administrations in Washington have tried to wean India off Russian gear, with important wins. But Russia maintains a grip on some major systems, selling nuclear-powered submarines and warships to the Indian armed forces.