The stakes for both Moscow and Kyiv couldn’t be higher. The course of the entire war could hinge on the outcome in the Donbas.
Russia and Ukraine appear to be in the final stages of preparation to fight the Battle of Donbas, in what is shaping up to be the biggest tank battle in Europe since the decisive Battle of Kursk in World War II. The stakes for both Moscow and Kyiv couldn’t be higher. The course of the entire war could hinge on the outcome in the Donbas.
On February 24, Russian forces invaded Ukraine on four major axes of advance, near Kyiv, Kharkiv, the Donbas, and up through the Crimea. In spreading their limited numbers of troops, Russia’s military leadership violated one of the oldest principles of war: mass. Instead of designating a primary objective and allocating the bulk of their combat power to seizing that objective, they dispersed their forces so widely that Ukraine’s defenders were able to repulse all four axes.
After suffering serious combat losses in the environs west and north of Kyiv, Russia acknowledged its failures and about a month into the war made the decision to limit its failures in the Kyiv and Sumy regions by withdrawing all its forces and repositioning them to the northern side of the ongoing Donbas fight. Russia also kept its forces north of Kharkiv conducting limited probing attacks and harassing artillery fire to keep the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) from withdrawing to join the Donbas fight.
South of the Donbas, Russia is in the final stages of completing the destruction of the UAF defenders of Mariupol, which will open a land bridge between Russia and its forces in Crimea, allowing logistics and other support to its troops in the Kherson area (where likewise lo-level fighting continues so as to pin down Ukrainian troops and prevent them from reinforcing their compatriots in the Donbas).
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