Questions loom over the next phase of a devastating conflict that has left civilians at risk of famine
The capture of Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, by Ethiopian forces in late November was depicted by the government in Addis Ababa as the finishing blow to forces loyal to the northern region’s former government.
But on June 29, seven months after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared victory, his troops vacated Mekelle amid battleground defeats following the launch of a major counteroffensive by the Tigrayan forces.
Hours after the evacuation of the city, Ethiopia announced that it had enacted a unilateral ceasefire, ostensibly for humanitarian reasons.
“The main objective of the ceasefire is to facilitate aid deliveries and permit farmers to cultivate their crops in peace,” Abraham Belay, leader of Tigray’s now overthrown interim administration, explained in an address on state television shortly after the takeover.
The declaration came as Ethiopia faced increasing international pressure on the back of credible reports of extrajudicial killings, widespread rape and famine-like conditions in Tigray, where the United Nations estimates that more than 90 percent of its six million inhabitants are in need of emergency food aid.
It instilled some hope that after eight months of brutal warfare, the region might see a halt in the fighting. But on the day of the Ethiopian army’s pullout from Mekelle, phone lines across Tigray, as well as the limited internet access used by aid organisations for their operations, were severed.
Then, reports emerged that a bridge on the Tekeze River, a key crossing point for aid deliveries into Tigray, was destroyed. Both warring factions traded blame.
The developments continue to hamper aid deliveries to affected populations, including some of the two million people internally displaced by the war.
“We are extremely concerned about the access limitations in and out of Tigray with both Shire and Mekelle airports closed and some roads connecting Tigray blocked, particularly the road between Shire and Debark where we have an operational base in the Amhara region,” said Neven Crvenković, spokesman for the UN’s refugee agency in Ethiopia.
“Destruction of the bridge across the Tekeze river has rendered this road impassable – this is gravely affecting our ability to move in staff, aid material as well as basic supplies such as food, fuel and cash.”
TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda has since openly threatened to send Tigrayan forces into Eritrea, whose troops had entered Tigray in support of Abiy’s army. “Our primary focus is to degrade enemy fighting capabilities,” he told Reuters news agency.
Following the withdrawal from Mekelle, Eritrean soldiers similarly vacated a number of towns in Tigray, including Axum and Shiraro, which they had held for months.
The Ethiopian army’s Lieutenant-General Bacha Debele, however, warned at a news conference in Addis Ababa last week: “If provoked, [the army] could march on Mekelle even today. But if we return, the damage will be far worse than before.”
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